The Shift: October 2020

Going, going, gone! In a month that I previously predicted to be a long-awaited turn-around after almost half a year of falls, more than 800 net World Assembly nations have gone straight out the door. This constituted a total change of -3.6% for October and an even-larger real change of -7.3%.



The movement of region types was remarkably similar this month, with feeders faring worst at -4.1%, User Created Regions (UCRs) close behind on -3.6%, and sinkers having a slightly better performance at -2.7%.

Thaecia and The Land of Kings and Emperors both had an especially good few weeks, each growing by more than 12%. The Internationale had the largest decrease of any region, falling by more than 20%, while The Union of Democratic States, Enadia, and Wintreath were all also in double-digit negatives.



This continuing fall in October is statistically concerning for two reasons. The first is that a month-on-month drop in the total World Assembly population from September to October has not been seen since 2011 (the average movement for the 2010s was +3.7%). The second is that this is the fifth straight month of falls since the Drewpocalypse.



This year in NationStates has shown that predicting population movements is as easy as knowing where a stock market will close when it opens. Trends would seem to suggest that November will push the total change back into positive territory, but this was supposed to be seen both this month and in September.

So it seems the waiting game continues for most regions. While October seems to have delivered more of a trick than a treat, the hope will be that the approaching holiday season generates renewed interest in NationStates, turning the nation tide around.


Llo

Llo has been on NationStates since May 2016, residing primarily in The Leftist Assembly, where he has previously served as Secretary for four terms. He enjoys working in regional governments, particularly in news, elections, law-making, and polling. He is the Chief Executive Officer of NationStates Today, and is the most published author in the organisation's history with over 50 articles.