The Shift: June 2020

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With the major daily update of NationStates still lasting more than double its normal duration, it appears regions are continuing to reel from the double shock of the ‘Drewpocalypse’. In this month’s edition of The Shift, we will investigate the short-term shifters that are experiencing the sharpest falls and the ones that are bucking the trend, taking a closer look next month at the long-term changes before and after the sudden shock, when the numbers are expected to become more stable.

The total change in the World Assembly population for this month was -13.3%, the inverse result of May. As previously discussed, we have now entered the final stage of this population influx, having well passed the 28-day mark following the second Drew Durnil video that typically aligns with the beginning of nations ceasing-to-exist. This has expectedly had the sharpest impact on feeders and User-Created Regions (UCRs), where most of the gains were initially placed, with six UCRs falling more than 30%. Unlike the average double-digit falls in those region types, however, sinkers have only fallen by 6.1%, with all four being in the top 15 strongest-growing regions.


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On an individual region level, The Invaders round out the worst performance, having almost halved in the past month, while three regions – Commonwealth of Liberty, The Glorious Nations of Iwaku, and The Communist Bloc – actually saw positive growth, each exceeding 10%.

One of the most interesting aspects of this month’s data is the diversity of outcomes in feeder regions, which tend to group together in most months, occasionally with one odd exception to the rule. However, this month has seen the five feeders spread out. The North Pacific, the largest of the group, experienced a fall of 12.4% – indeed marginally better than the total average – while The Pacific, the smallest, almost doubled that drop with a 21.2% decrease in World Assembly nations, with the others scattered in between.


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This trend may consolidate growing disparity between the feeders, with The North Pacific remaining more than 500 World Assembly nations ahead of its next-closest rival, and The Pacific continuing to lag behind 10000 Islands as the sixth-largest region overall.

Despite the monthly fall in the total World Assembly population, it still remains approximately 20% above its pre-surge peak. The question lingers as to whether these gains will continue to wither away in the persistently long major and minor updates being experienced each day, or if some portion can be held onto in the long-term. By the most reasonable judgement available, it seems that we might just find ourselves somewhere in the middle.

Llo

Llo has been on NationStates since May 2016, residing primarily in The Leftist Assembly, where he has most notably served previously as its Secretary for four terms. He enjoys working in regional governments, particularly in news, elections, law-making, and polling. He is a former CEO of NationStates Today, and is now an editor and Politics/Gameplay writer. He has published over 50 articles, making him the most published writer in the organisation's history, and writes the monthly edition of 'The Shift'.