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The Shift: April 2021

Historical trends show that April tends to be the month with the highest growth in the total World Assembly population. The past month, however, has delivered a nominal change of -1.0%, and a real change of -5.3% when accounting for expectations. This represents a third successive underperforming month in what could be the troubling beginnings of something like last year’s seven-month streak of real falls.


What do these terms mean?


Overall, feeders fared the worst of any region type, averaging at -2.1% for change in their World Assembly populations, followed by User Created Regions (UCRs) at -1.1%. Sinkers were lifted by the strong performance of The Rejected Realms to finish at a +2.4% monthly change.



The Rejected Realms (+16.9%) was one of three regions that stood out for their especially high growth, being slightly outpaced by United Kingdom (+17.8%) and Anteria (+17.4%). At the opposite end, New Western Empire (-12.5%) suffered the greatest fall, being closely followed by Thaecia (-11.0%) and the Confederation of Corrupt Dictators (-8.8%).

Feeders have now reached their lowest proportion of the World Assembly population in six months, falling to 21.8%, while sinkers made up the lost ground to grow to 7.1%, and UCRs remained steady at 71.1%.



This month also marks the first anniversary of the initial wave of the ‘Drewpocalypse’, which was an unprecedented spike in NationStates activity after popular YouTuber Drew Durnil posted a video about the game. That event led to a record-breaking monthly growth of +21.8% in the total World Assembly population within just a few days.

As a result, compared to twelve months ago, the total World Assembly population is 23.2% smaller. Even extending that comparison to two years ago, the population is still notably smaller, with a 12.7% reduction. In fact, this month’s value is the smallest population in April since 2014. This statistic should elicit some concerns about the long-term growth trends within the game.



Author

  • Llo has been on NationStates since May 2016, residing primarily in The Leftist Assembly, where he has previously served as Secretary for four terms. He enjoys working in regional governments, particularly in news, elections, law-making, and polling. He is the former Chief Executive Officer and current Chief Content Officer of NationStates Today, and is the most published author in the organisation's history with over 60 articles.